Which NBA player’s triple double contributes to wining the most / the least?
Whose triple doubles increase his team’s chances of winning games significantly, and whose triple doubles are mostly self-serving for stat-padding? We look into NBA’s leading active triple double scorers — Russell Westbrook, LeBron James, Nikola Jokić, James Harden, and Luka Dončić — and the ensuing analysis reveals a major surprise.
The debate around potential stat padding when an NBA player registers a triple double has been very divisive and rather inconclusive. To bring some clarity and objectivity to this topic, we will carry out an analysis based on win-loss records.
Stat padding is an action that improves a player’s box score statistics despite being of little to no benefit to his team’s chance of winning. In most cases, whether a player is stat padding or not is difficult to determine, but occasionally it is so obvious that it results in fan and media outcry, and sometimes even the league’s governing body intervenes.
One such obvious stat padding incident was committed recently by the two-time MVP, Giannis Antetokounmpo. On 5th March 2023, in the dying seconds of the game between the Milwaukee Bucks and the Washington Wizards, the Bucks power forward was in the possession of the the ball, and the Washington players were not defending him — since the outcome of the game (a victory for the Bucks) was already determined — so that he could dribble out the clock. However, Antetokounmpo had other ideas. Knowing that he was was one rebound shy of completing a triple double, Antetokounmpo dribbled to the basket, then tossed the ball off the backboard and caught it before the final buzzer sounded, thus self creating an uncontested rebound to complete his tripple double of 23 points, 13 assists, 10 rebounds. It was such a clear incidence of stat-padding that the NBA had to rescind Antetokounmpo’s self-created rebound, so that the associated triple-double was taken off the record books.
The question is, in cases when it is not very obvious, how can we determine whether a player’s particular action on the court is purely for contributing his team winning a game, or for improving his own standing in the box score record books—thus, for stat padding?
The answer may lie in the win-loss records of the team. More specifically, for a player under scrutiny for potential stat padding, we can compare his team’s win-loss record when he scored triple doubles to his team’s win-loss record when he did not register a triple double. The difference between the two records will give us the amount increase in the probability of a team winning a game when a player scores a triple double compared to when the same player does not score a triple double.
In order to reduce statistical noise, we only considered the players who scored more than 50 regular-season triple doubles during their careers. There are five active players who qualified; Russell Westbrook (198 triple doubles), LeBron James (106), Nikola Jokić (104), James Harden (74), and Luka Dončić (56).
The team win-loss records for these five players show that there is a strong correlation between triple doubles and winning games. Among the league’s top triple double scorers, the correlation is strongest for Nikola Jokić. When Jokić registers a triple double, Denver Nugget’s chance of winning the game increases by 27% on average. This is the highest increase ever recorded for win probability due to scoring a triple double, among the players with 50 or more regular season triple doubles. Thus, we can safely say that Jokić’s triple doubles are the most valuable, as they contribute to winning the most.
In fact, the increase in win probability due to a Jokić triple double is rather comical in 2022–23 season, as the Nuggets have an incredible record of 26 wins and only 2 losses — i.e. Nuggets have a winning percentage of 93% — in 28 games where Jokić has scored a triple double. This level of correlation between winning games and triple doubles has never seen in NBA history before this season. What Jokić has been doing is simply peerless.
Perhaps the most surprising insight from this analysis is that—contrary to his reputation—Russell Westbrook is not the most likely stat-padder among the leading triple double scorers of the league. In fact, this unsavoury distinction may belong to the recently minted all-time scoring leader, the four-time MVP Lebron James, as his triple doubles are the least valuable in terms of winning games. Jame’s triple doubles increase winning probability for his team by 12% only, which is by far the lowest among the players examined.
Based on the win-loss records, Nikola “joker” Jokić is the winningest triple double player of the league, who seems to be rather oblivious to his box score numbers. On the other hand, LeBron “king” James is the top contender for the stat-padding triple double crown, if there is one.
